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	<title>Comments on: A reality checker for economic illusion</title>
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	<link>http://philebersole.wordpress.com/2012/10/25/a-reality-checker-for-economic-illusion/</link>
	<description>thoughts about politics and the passing scene</description>
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		<title>By: philebersole</title>
		<link>http://philebersole.wordpress.com/2012/10/25/a-reality-checker-for-economic-illusion/#comment-14640</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[philebersole]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Nov 2012 22:34:46 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[An economist friend sent me the following e-mail

&lt;em&gt;Your review of Econned refers to &quot;Lipsey-Lancaster Theorem, which showed that unless every single one of the Arrow-Debreu conditions were met, partial fulfillment would be useless or even harmful.&quot; This is a slight over-statement. A more balanced statement would begin with &quot;one can construct examples such that...&quot; More pertinent to financial markets is a related result that, when markets are incomplete, opening an extra market (e.g., introducing a new financial instrument) but failing to open all possible markets (thereby completing the markets) may lead to a reduction in welfare. (See, e.g., http://www.princeton.edu/~erp/ERParchives/archivepdfs/M281.pdf)

These all are theories---i.e., hypothesis---though. Unfortunately, I cannot think of empirical research that tests these theories in the context of financial innovation. It would be a fascinating research question. I know people who contemplate this question, but it is very hard.

Coming back to your review, I think journalists and commentators are to blame more than economists. Journalists often treat economic research as physics research or engineering. Economics is not engineering (except, perhaps, Al Roth&#039;s work, for which he was awarded Nobel prize this year), the models are stylised (even when estimated empirically), and the results have a myriad of qualifications. Academic economists realise that, but commentators tend to interpret economic models literally. Of course, one can blame academic economists who focus perhaps excessively on academic research instead of popularising existing ideas. But often, as soon as one starts popularising ideas, one somehow loses touch with the economic profession. One can construct examples of this.

I agree with your review in that all models in economics are false. This does not make them useless, of course. What is surprising is that the Wall Street types, who are highly intelligent, choose to make costly mistakes while relying on these models. My sense is that they choose to err rationally, as their liability is limited.&lt;/em&gt;]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>An economist friend sent me the following e-mail</p>
<p><em>Your review of Econned refers to &#8220;Lipsey-Lancaster Theorem, which showed that unless every single one of the Arrow-Debreu conditions were met, partial fulfillment would be useless or even harmful.&#8221; This is a slight over-statement. A more balanced statement would begin with &#8220;one can construct examples such that&#8230;&#8221; More pertinent to financial markets is a related result that, when markets are incomplete, opening an extra market (e.g., introducing a new financial instrument) but failing to open all possible markets (thereby completing the markets) may lead to a reduction in welfare. (See, e.g., <a href="http://www.princeton.edu/~erp/ERParchives/archivepdfs/M281.pdf" rel="nofollow">http://www.princeton.edu/~erp/ERParchives/archivepdfs/M281.pdf</a>)</p>
<p>These all are theories&#8212;i.e., hypothesis&#8212;though. Unfortunately, I cannot think of empirical research that tests these theories in the context of financial innovation. It would be a fascinating research question. I know people who contemplate this question, but it is very hard.</p>
<p>Coming back to your review, I think journalists and commentators are to blame more than economists. Journalists often treat economic research as physics research or engineering. Economics is not engineering (except, perhaps, Al Roth&#8217;s work, for which he was awarded Nobel prize this year), the models are stylised (even when estimated empirically), and the results have a myriad of qualifications. Academic economists realise that, but commentators tend to interpret economic models literally. Of course, one can blame academic economists who focus perhaps excessively on academic research instead of popularising existing ideas. But often, as soon as one starts popularising ideas, one somehow loses touch with the economic profession. One can construct examples of this.</p>
<p>I agree with your review in that all models in economics are false. This does not make them useless, of course. What is surprising is that the Wall Street types, who are highly intelligent, choose to make costly mistakes while relying on these models. My sense is that they choose to err rationally, as their liability is limited.</em></p>
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