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Posts Tagged ‘Future’
I wrote a post a couple of months ago entitled A prosperous industrial society without oil? about what life would be like after the affordable oil ran out if we successfully made a transition to nuclear, coal and/or green energy. James Howard Kunstler anticipated my speculation in his 2005 book, The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the 21st Century. He said it’s not going to happen.
The “converging catastrophes” of the subtitle include global climate change and the rise of antibiotic-resistant diseases, but the most important one is the exhaustion of affordable oil supplies, which has already begun.
Oil is the basis of the American material standard of living. The oil industry originated in the United States. When I was a schoolboy, the US was the world’s chief oil-exporting nation. After our domestic production passed its peak, we turned to imports. Now they may be peaking, too.
In my earlier post, I claimed that it would be possible to have a functioning industrial civilization without oil, based on some combination of nuclear power, coal and green technologies. We could have electric trolley cars instead of automobiles, steam locomotive trains instead of airlines.
Kunstler anticipated my argument. He noted that electric power, steam engines and the so-called green technologies are all products of an energy-intensive industrial civilization. It would be technically possible to transition to non-oil energy sources, particularly nuclear power, provided this was done while we still had a functioning petroleum-based industrial economy. But neither our dysfunctional government, our short-sighted corporate establishment nor we the people have the will to prepare for the future. Once the emergency happens, it will be too late. We won’t have any of the easy-to-get ores and fuels which were the basis of the original industrial revolution.
The Americans who will survive the emergency best, he wrote, are farms owners and small town residents in the Northeast and Great Lakes areas, who own farmland and possess traditional craft skills. Mennonites probably will do well, he wrote; so will organic farmers who don’t depend on tractors, milking machines and seed companies. Animal husbandry will be in great demand, he wrote; there will be few pets, but many working animals. Horses will be as common as automobiles are today.
In his view suburbia will become literally as well as figuratively a vast wasteland. Big box retail stores, which depend on just-in-time deliveries over long distances, will cease to exist. Big cities will not survive on their present scale, although he thinks certain sites, because of geography, will always will be urban centers – New York City, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Detroit, St. Louis, New Orleans and so on. Most Americans, except for farmers on the land, will live in small towns whose economic purpose is to service the agricultural economy.
He thinks the South – “the Land of NASCAR” – will fare poorly because it depends on air conditioning and the automobile. He doubts many people in the Rockies, the Great Plains and the Southwest will survive the collapse of the big irrigation systems. People in the rainy coast of the Pacific Northwest will do all right if they’re not attacked by pirates (!) .
All in all, the survival of the world’s 6 billion people (at the time of writing) depends on industrial agriculture and petroleum-based fertilizers, he said; mass starvation will result when these are no longer available.
Kunstler himself has moved to the village of New Corinth, in northeastern New York near Saratoga. He has learned the use of hand tools, and owns a gun “which is a great comfort.” Most importantly, he has made connections with his neighbors. Making yourself part of a community is the most important survival skill.
He emphasized that his predictions are not what he wants to happen, but what he thinks will unfortunately happen. He said he would be pleased if some sort of miracle technological breakthrough restored the era of cheap energy, as when the peaking of the supply of whale oil sparked the development of petroleum technology, but it would be foolish to count on this happening. As the saying goes, hope is not a plan.
I would like to think people a century from now will be building things that are even more amazing. But maybe not. Maybe they will look back on our period as one of wretched excess based on denial of global climate change and the peaking of the world oil supply.