Return on investment (of labor) is falling

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The United States officially has been in economic recovery in 2009.  Economic output, as measured by Gross Domestic Product, is up.  Corporate profits are up.  The stock market has reached new highs.  So, according to the law of supply and demand, wages should be rising, too.  Right?  Wrong.

Economics writer Felix Salmon has the figures.

NELP, the National Employment Law Project, has taken a detailed look at what happened to wages during the recovery — specifically, between 2009 and 2012.  They looked at the annual Occupational and Employment Statistics for three years — 2007, 2009 and 2012 — and created a list of wages for 785 different occupations.  They then split those occupations into five quintiles, according to income; the lowest quintile made $9.49/hr, on average, last year, while the highest quintile averaged $40.23/hr.  […]

The big-picture lesson that NELP draws is that between 2009 and 2012, real median hourly wages fell by 2.8% — and that the poorer you were to start with, the more your wages fell.  The top quintile didn’t do well: their wages dropped by 1.8%, in real terms.  But the fourth quintile did particularly badly: its wages fell by 4.1%, on average. 

To take one example, occupation 39-5012 — that’s Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists — was earning $12.00 an hour, in 2012 dollars, in 2009.  But by 2012 they were earning just $10.91 per hour: a drop of more than 9%. 

Or look at occupation 51-6042 (“Shoe Machine Operators and Tenders”): that job saw wages fall 14%, in real terms, in just three years, with nominal wages falling from $12.69 to $11.69 per hour.

The charts show the large range of outcomes: some occupations are doing great.  At the top end, the highest-paid profession on the list, Psychiatrists, went from earning $69.48 per hour in 2007, to $83.33 per hour in 2012.  That’s a real increase of 8.3%.  But overall, everybody is doing pretty badly.

So what’s going on?

20120314-graph-the-1-percents-jobless-recovery-01

Click on Wage deflation charts of the day for Felix Salmon’s full article.

Click on The 1 Percent’s Jobless Recovery for the Century Foundation’s article.

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