The U.S. jobless rate is falling [Update: Maybe]

MW-DH110_jobs_r_20150306091454_ZHVia MarketWatch.

It’s interesting that the report of gains in jobs and a drop in unemployment was followed by a drop in stock prices.

Conceivably this could be been due to the improvement being less than expected, but analysts quoted in my morning newspaper said investors fear that the apparent recovery will cause the Federal Reserve Board to stop holding down interest rates in order to stimulate the economy.

A certain number of people can be expected take their money out of the stock market and put it in savings accounts in banks, or in bonds, because they would getting actual interest income again.

In other words, stock prices reflect an unsustainable government policy, and not the real health of the economy.


Still, it’s good news that the unemployment rate is falling, and is falling by every measure.

alternativemeasuresunemploymentVia Business Insider.

I suspect that the growth in jobs and decline in unemployment is due to the normal recovery that would occur in any economic cycle, as much as it is due to the specific policies of the President, Congress and Federal Reserve System.   Still, I don’t want to be a curmudgeon.  Things could be worse.


U.S. adds 295,000 jobs in February by Jeffry Bartash for MarketWatch.

The ‘Less Rosy’ Side of the Unemployment Rate by Sarah Jean Semen for

Tackling the Real Unemployment Rate by Louis Efron for Forbes.


Bureau of Labor Statistics definitions:

U1.  The long-term unemployed.  Persons unemployed 15 weeks are longer as a percentage of the American work force, which is everyone who is either working or looking for work.

U2.  Job losers.  Persons who’ve lost their jobs or held temporary jobs that ran out, as a percentage of the American work force.

U3.  The official unemployment rate.  Persons unemployed and looking for work, as a percentage of the American work force.

U4.  All of the above plus discouraged workers, who are people who’ve given a job-market related reason for not looking for work.

U5.  All of the above plus marginal workers, which are people who aren’t working or looking for work, but have looked for work in the past 12 months and say they’d take a job if offered.

U6.  All of the above plus the underemployed, who are people working part-time who say they want to work full-time.



Actually, I should be more of a curmudgeon than I am.

Another Dubious Jobs Report by Paul Craig Roberts.

Did the BLS Again Forget to Count the Tens of Thousands of Energy Job Losses? by Tyler Durden for ZeroHedge.

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One Response to “The U.S. jobless rate is falling [Update: Maybe]”

  1. Mark Says:

    Shadownstats also includes “long term discouraged” in a chart – that chart doesn’t show a decline and the gap between the official numbers and this measure has been growing the last few years.
    Things are still really bad according to this measure.


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