The risk of war in the South China Sea

chinasea-1x-1The Chinese People’s Republic seeks to control the South China Sea.  It is building artificial islands which it will claim as Chinese territory.

Its claims are in conflict with the claims of smaller nations of Southeast Asia, which, so far as I can tell, are equally valid in international law.

The Obama administration is preparing to confront China militarily over these claims.  This is a big mistake.

map_disputed-reefsThe sea routes in the South China Sea are vital to China and not vital to any other nation.   The South China Sea route is the cheapest and most convenient sea route for Japan, Korea and the nations of Southeast Asia.  But if worst comes to worst, they could take a longer route.  The Pacific Ocean is a big body of water.

The United States government is currently confronting Russia and China, the only two nations in the world that are beyond the reach of American naval and air power, over matters that the Russian and Chinese governments see as vital to national survival, and which are not vital to the United States.

artificialislandIn the case of Russia, it is the goal of bringing Ukraine into an anti-Russian military alliance and making Crimea a possible base for NATO forces.  In the case of China, it is the goal of U.S. domination of the sea routes to eastern Asia.

I am not an admirer of the Russian or Chinese governments.  They both abuse human rights.  They both believe in their own versions of exceptionalism, believing they have the right to dominate their smaller and weaker neighbors.   An increase in Russian or Chinese power is a bad thing, not a good thing.

But I don’t think trying to roll back the existing Russian or Chinese spheres of influence is worth risking war over, any more than Russia or China would think it worthwhile to risk war over U.S. domination of the Caribbean and Central America.

LINKS

US Rolls Out the Escalation Product in the South China Sea by Peter Lee for China Matters.

Beijing’s South China Sea expansion: The salami slices back! by Peter Lee for Asia Times.

China claims airspace and seas around artificial islands in disputed waters after warning off U.S. planes by Christopher Bodeen of the Associated Press (via Canada’s National Post)

China plans naval and air force bases on six islands and reef in South China Sea by Next Big Future.

The South China Sea will be the battleground of the future by Robert D. Kaplan for Business Insider.

China’s Plan to Lead the Globe by Eric Margolis for The Unz Review [Added 5/24/2015]

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