The Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns will ignore most voters in 2016. They will focus on a few voters in a few swing states.
Frank Bruni in the New York Times wrote about how a Republican insider thinks the Republicans can win by nominating Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida, for President and Frank Kasich, the current governor of Ohio for Vice-President, and thereby carrying those two states.
Neither party’s strategists bother with California, Texas or New York, states in which they think the outcome is a foregone conclusion. Only a few states – Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina and maybe one or two others – are in play.
This is something new, and in part a self-fufilling prophecy. In the 1976 election, as Bruni noted, there were 20 states, including California, Texas and New York, where the margin of victory was less than 5 percentage points.
Polarization between red states and blue states has grown since then, and one of the reasons has to be that Democrats cede Texas and the Deep South to the Republicans, and Republicans cede California, New York and New England to the Democrats.
When I tell my Democratic friends I am disgusted with both parties and plan to vote for the Green Party candidate, they bring up the vote for Ralph Nader in Florida in 2000 and ask me whether I want Donald Trump to be President. I would vote my conscience in any case, but why even think about this question if it is a foregone conclusion that New York will go Democratic in any case?
The Millions of Marginalized Americans by Frank Bruni in the New York Times. (Hat tip to Steve Badrich)