The geography of Donald Trump’s support

 

Republican_Party_presidential_primaries_results_by_county,_2016.svg

Winners by county: Trump, turquoise; Cruz, gold; Kasich, green; Rubio, red

Source: Wikipedia.

Trump-Cruz-3-16

Source: The New York Times.

The two maps above show the support for Donald Trump versus other Republican candidates in primaries so far.   The next chart shows support for Trump based on public opinion polls.

upshot_trump_ctr

Source: The New York Times.

None of this has any significance in deciding who to vote for, and little significance in predicting who will win.  It just reflects my addiction to looking at data on maps.

Below are some more maps with information that might help explain these three maps.  First, two maps showing American regional cultures, and then some more demographic information.  I leave it to you to find the correlations (if any).

upinarms-map-large

Source: Colin Woodard’s American Nations.

american-nations-furno-1981

Source: Joel Garreau’s The Nine Nations of North America.

3.1999PartCtyunitedstatesancestrygroups.censusbureauincluding-unreported1

white-liberal-counties

Source: Jayman’s Blog.

racially-charged-internet-searches

Source: The New York Times.

heart disease

Source: The Washington Post.

And here are links to articles by people with opinions on what this all means.

Donald Trump’s Strongest Supporters: a Certain Kind of Democrat by Nate Cohn for the New York Times.

The Donald Trump Phenomenon Part I: the American Nations on Jayman’s Blog.

The Donald Trump Phenomenon Part 2: Binary Thinking on Jayman’s Blog.

Trump’s Seven Nations by Anatoly Karlin for the Unz Review.

Detailed Maps of Where Trump, Cruz, Clinton and Sanders Have Won in the New York Times.

Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016, on Wikipedia.

∞∞∞

For what it’s worth, my own opinion, based on what I’ve read, is that support for Donald Trump is based on a combination of working people’s pent-up anger at policies that work against their interests, and white working people’s pent-up resentment of immigrants and minority groups they think are advancing at their expense.

But the (few) Donald Trump supporters I’ve talked to are regular people, not in economic distress, who either don’t follow politics closely, or follow policies through Fox News and right-wing talk radio, and favor Donald Trump because they (wrongly) think he is an honest and independent individual who is unafraid to speak his mind.

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