Regionalism vs. race, gender and class

Click to enlarge

My previous five posts are about the origins of American regional cultures and how regional identity affects politics and society.   The maps above are a reality check.

It shows the hypothetical outcome of the 2016 election if only certain groups of people had been allowed to vote.

Regional distributions of Democratic and Republican strength mostly remain the same, but the outcomes are considerably different.

If only people of color voted or only women voted, Democrats would have won in a landslide.   But if only whites voted or only men voted, the landslide would have been Republican.

The maps were made prior to the 2016 election by Ste Kinney-Fields, based on data from the FiveThirtyEight web site.   He mapped data from voting of demographic groups in the 2012 election, adjusted for the changing numbers of the various groups by 2016.

The maps don’t reflect the actual outcome of the 2016 election.   Based on demography and history, Hillary Clinton should have won, but she didn’t.

LINKS

Do you know this graphic?  I made it.  Here’s why by Ste Kinney-Fields for Medium.

What Would It Take to Flip States in the 2016 Election? by Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman for FiveThirtyEight.

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7 Responses to “Regionalism vs. race, gender and class”

  1. williambearcat Says:

    Interesting. But would the make-up of the various groups change if only that group voted? Would there be less intensity to vote if______________were the only ones voting.?

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    • philebersole Says:

      An interesting question. Has male turnout been greater since women got the vote? Has white turnout in the South been greater since the Voting Rights Act?

      What I got out of the chart was that the racial divide and the gender divide were more significant, politically, than the regional divide, and that the educational divide was (surprisingly to me) less significant.

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  2. Edward Says:

    Is there an urban vs. rural graph?

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    • philebersole Says:

      The urban-rural split is obviously important. Monroe County, N.Y., where I live, is dominated by the City of Rochester and its suburbs. The result in the last election was: Clinton, 55%; Trump 40%

      Rural Wayne County, adjoining us to the east, was: Trump, 60%; Clinton, 34%.

      But how much of the rural vs. urban gap is a white vs. people of color gap? You would need Ste Kinney-Fields and FiveThirtyEight to produce a map showing the gap between urban, suburban and rural white people.

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    • philebersole Says:

      Here’s a map breaking down 2016 Democratic and Republican presidential votes by urban vs. rural, or rather densely-populated vs. thinly populated.

      Click to enlarage.

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      • Edward Says:

        Thanks. Half of the U.S. looks unpopulated. The rural vs. urban divide seems to come up in other countries. In Afghanistan the Communists were urban and the jihadists rural. Or at least that is what I have read. You can never be sure about these opinions you read in articles because they are usually stated without proof.

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  3. Edward Says:

    These maps are pretty interesting, but I don’t think too much should be read into them. For one thing, population density is not uniform, so a small number of blue states do not necessarily mean a small number of blue voters; the red states could have small populations. Another issue is gerrymandering and voter suppression. This could give certain voters an outsized influence. Finally, it isn’t crystal clear what factors are the important ones. Perhaps gender is important or there might be some other factor which correlates with gender or there might be a complex of factors.

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