Why failed Donald Trump may win in 2020

Donald Trump has a good chance of being re-elected despite his poor record as President.

If Joe Biden is nominated, Trump will be able to attack him from the left as a defender of the status quo, just as he did Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton.

If Bernie Sanders is nominated, the Democratic establishment will turn on him, as their predecessors did McGovern.  The Washington press corps already is against him.

There’s a possibility that, because of the large number of Democratic candidates, no candidate will go into the Democratic convention with a majority, in which case the super-delegates will decide.  Their most likely choice would be Biden or, if his candidacy fades, the most conservative Democrat still in the running.

I don’t think impeachment or doubling down on Russiagate will help the Democrats, but they’ll also pay a price by giving up and tacitly admitting they’re wrong.  They lose either way.

Donald Trump has failed to deliver on any of his promises.  He’s started a trade war with China, but this hasn’t helped unemployed factory workers.  He’s done a lot of unnecessarily cruel things to unauthorized immigrants, but he hasn’t addressed the immigration issue.  He hasn’t “cleaned the swamp.” He doesn’t have a plan for replacing Obamacare with something better.  He doesn’t have an infrastructure plan.

All these failures create an opening for Democrats.  But do they have something better to offer?

Bernie Sanders is the only one who can bring about needed social change because he is the only one who has created a campaign organization and source of funds that is independent of big donors and the Democratic Party machinery.  If elected, he would have a power base independent of the big donors and a means of putting pressure on Congress to enact his program.

That’s precisely why the Democratic Party establishment would be against him.  Re-electing Trump would only keep them out of office.  Electing Sanders would threaten their careers and their sources of power.

Joe Biden is their preferred candidate.  Biden is an unapologetic supporter of the financial elite and the warfare state. He takes up for rich people and has “no empathy” for struggling Millennials.  I’ll give him credit for honesty.  He doesn’t pretend to be progressive.

Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard have good ideas, but they would have less power to bring about change than Sanders would.  Neither one is the head of a mass movement as Sanders is.  The Justice Democrats and Our Revolution support Sanders, but their aim is to change American politics as a whole and not just elect one candidate.

I’ve not researched all the other candidates, but at this point, I think of them as like bottles of soda pop in a vending machine.  They’re different flavors, but they’re basically all the same sugar water.

The big story of the 2016 election was the decline of the Democrats.  Trump’s vote was the basic Republican vote – the same as what Romney and McCain got.  The Democrats lost support among all their key demographic groups – male, female, white, black and Hispanic.

The big story of the 2018 election was the resurgence of the Democratic Party, based on anger at Trump.  Will that resurgence carry on into 2020?  I think the election is not whether Trump will win the election, but whether the Democrats will lose – and there’s a good chance they will.

LINKS

Democrats Must Expose Trump’s Betrayal of Working People by Robert Borosage for The Nation.

Trump Has Betrayed His Working Class Supporters by Robert Reich for truthdig.

The Economic Betrayal in Trump’s False Promises by Jesse Lee and Daniela Zessoules for the Center for American Progress..

Donald Trump’s Path to Victory by Joel Bleifuss for In These Times.

Joe Biden’s disastrous legislative legacy by Andrew Cockburn for Harper’s magazine.

Joe Biden Is a Disaster Waiting to Happen by Branko Marcetic for Jacobin.

On the Trail With Bernie Sanders 2.0 by Matt Taibbi for Rolling Stone.

How Bernie Sanders Accidentally Built a Radical Movement by Ryan Grim for The Intercept.

The Worst 2020 Election Interference Will Be Perfectly Legal by Caitlin Johnstone.

Polling the Left Agenda by Data for Progress.  Many progressive ideas are popular.  Some aren’t.

Wall Street Dems Are Freaking Out About the 2020 Candidates by Gabriel Debenetti for New York magazine.

Tags: ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.


%d bloggers like this: