Pipeline sabotage kills last hope of Ukraine truce

I don’t know for a fact who is responsible for the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage.   But it is plain who benefits from the sabotage, who is hurt and what the results will be.

A winter truce or peace negotiations in the Ukraine war are now virtually impossible.

People in Germany and other European countries face a disastrous winter because of the cutoff of Russian oil and gas. The possibility of turning the gas back on gave Vladimir Putin great leverage in negotiating a possible truce.

The leaks in the gas pipelines take away that leverage.  Now Putin has little or nothing to offer Russia’s former European gas customers in return for peace.

The chief beneficiaries of the pipeline sabotage are Ukraine, the USA and maybe Poland.  The chief victims are Germany, other European gas importers and Russia itself.

On the day of the pipeline break, Poland announced a new pipeline that will transport gas from Norway’s North Sea gas fields to Poland via Denmark and the Baltic Sea.  It reportedly will supply 15 percent of Poland’s needs.

[Added Later]  Alex Christoforous of The Duran, in the video posted above, makes some good points.  He said Russia wouldn’t have sabotaged its own pipeline, for the same reasons I gave.  It would be a case of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

If it had been a false flag operation of the United States, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken wouldn’t have been caught by surprise.  He’d be saying there is no need for an investigation, Russia is to blame, let’s retaliate.

Also, he said, the great powers do not attack each others’ undersea pipelines and cables because they all are so vulnerable and it would be so easy to retaliate.

His speculative answer is that there is some sort of a cabal, including rogue elements of the U.S. and other governments, which is committed to bringing down Russia and deindustrializing Germany at all costs, but which hasn’t thought out the consequences.

Meanwhile Russia’s referendums in its occupied territories Ukraine went through as scheduled, with overwhelming majorities voting to join Russia.

Of course any referendum in a territory until military occupation is suspect.  The ballots were in Russian.  But I’m pretty sure that, at least in the Donbas region, where the people of Luhansk and Donetzk have been under bombardment for eight years, there was no great desire to region Ukraine.

Interestingly, two of Russia’s vassal states, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are resisting getting involved in the Ukraine war.  The two countries didn’t recognize the Donbas republics when their sovereignty was recognized by Russia, and Kazakhstan recently announced it didn’t recognize the referendums.   Also, Kazakhstan, unlike NATO countries, welcomes Russian draft-dodgers.

This defiance of Russia is important.  Russia’s goal is to crack the unity of NATO, but Kazakhstan’s and Uzbekistan’s actions threaten the unity of Russia’s own alliance system.  Also, the support of the central Asian  is necessary to the success of China’s Belt and Road Initiative plan to economically unify the interior of Eurasia.

Meanwhile the United States has advised Americans in Russia to get out while they can.  We’re living in interesting times, and they’re growing more interesting by the day.

LINKS

Attack on Nord Stream kills prospects for dialogue in Europe by M.K. Bradrakumar for Indian Punchline.

NATO Calls Nord Stream Leaks ‘Deliberate, Reckless’ Sabotage by Radio Free Europe.  But doesn’t name the culprit.

Poland Attacks Germany and Blames Russia by John Helmer for Dances With Bears.

Whodunnit? Facts Related to the Sabotage Attack On the Nord Stream Pipeline by Bernhard for Moon of Alabama.

Omerta in the Gangster War by Diana Johnstone for Consortium News.

Did the U.S. Sabotage Nord Stream? by Rod Dreher for The American Conservative.

New Polish gas pipeline from Norway to reach full capacity ahead of schedule by Notes from Poland.

Baltic Pipe gas pipeline officially open by TVP World.

Uzbekistan warns citizens not to join foreign armies amid Ukraine conflict by Reuters.

Kazakhstan says it won’t recognize referendums in eastern Ukraine by Euractiv TV and Reuters.

Kazakh President Urges Calm and Care for Russians Fleeing Mobilization by Catherine Putz for The Diplomat.

Draft evasion in today’s Russia by Gilbert Doctorow

U.S. renews call for citizens to leave Russia amid mobilization by Al Jazeera.

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4 Responses to “Pipeline sabotage kills last hope of Ukraine truce”

  1. Nikolai Vladivostok Says:

    I don’t think Ukraine really benefits from the Nord Stream blast. As you say, it reduces the possibility of Germany pushing for a peace deal. The fighting will likely continue for a long time now and Russia may increase the level of destruction in order to win.

    Liked by 1 person

    • philebersole Says:

      When I wrote “Ukraine,” I meant Zelensky, Zalushny and the other people running things in Ukraine, not the unfortunate population of Ukraine.

      Yes, the Ukrainian common people would benefit from a truce and an end to hostilities, but nobody with power is looking out for them.

      Liked by 2 people

    • philebersole Says:

      Likewise, by the USA, I meant the powers that be, not ordinary Americans. We the people do not benefit from war, but our military-industrial complex does.

      I think Alex Christoforou, the guy in the video, has a good handle on who benefits.

      Liked by 2 people

  2. Eric Says:

    Reblogged this on Calculus of Decay .

    Liked by 1 person

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