French writer: Ukraine war “existential” for U.S.

Emmanuel Todd, a respected French historian and anthropologist, gave an interview to La Figero Friday that’s getting a lot of attention.

He said  the U.S.-Russian conflict over Ukraine is a global struggle that is “existential” for the USA as well as for Russia.   And, he said, U.S. power is more fragile than most Europeans and US Americans realize.

It is a test of the economic as well as military strengths of Russia on the one hand and the U.S.-led collective West on the other.  If the U.S. loses, its financial power as well as its military prestige will crumble.  It is not a conflict that the USA can simply walk away from as it did the wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

After the 2014 coup in Ukraine and the failure of the Minsk accords to protect Ukraine’s Russian-speaking minority, both Russia and the NATO alliance prepared for a showdown.  But Russia prepared by building up its economic strength as well as its military strength.

It is true, Todd wrote, that Russia expected Ukraine to crumble during the first few weeks of the invasion.  Russians underestimated the determination of Ukraine and its NATO backers to resist.

But the USA and its allies underestimated Russian determination and US American weakness, he wrote. The Russian leaders regard this war as their last chance to resist American domination, and they will not willingly give in.

He said that if Russia, backed by China, can resist U.S. sanctions indefinitely and exhaust the European economy, American monetary and financial power would collapse and the U.S. government would no longer be able to finance its huge trade deficit and governmental budget deficit.  This means the US government cannot afford to withdraw from the conflict.

For now, Russia has the advantage.  Todd pointed out some indicators of relative strength.

Since sanctions began in 2014, Russia has doubled its production of wheat, while American wheat production has declined, Todd said.  Russia is the world’s leading exporter of nuclear power plants.

In 2007, US American military experts said the USA would soon have the ability to launch a first strike against Russia to which Russia could not respond.  Today, Todd said, Russia’s hypersonic missiles give it nuclear superiority.

He said the USA has more than double the college-age population of Russia, but Russia has 30 percent more students studying engineering.  The USA fills the gap by enrolling foreign students, mostly Chinese and Indian, but this is unstable.

The USA has more advanced high-tech weapons than Russia does, and this has helped Ukraine win some victories.  But Russians are beating the USA in mass production of low-tech weapons, he said, and this is providing decisive.  

Ukrainians cannot match the number of Russian artillery barrages and drone attacks.  Todd did admit it is not clear to him how long the Russians can keep this up.  “The outcome and solution to the war will depend on the ability of both sides to produce armaments,” he said.

The conflict between the USA and Russia is not only military and economic.  It is diplomatic and cultural.  Todd noted Russia’s success in drawing Saudi Arabia and other non-European countries away from the Western alliance.

One facet of Russia’s soft power is its support for local nationalism, traditional religion and the patriarchal family, Todd said.  U.S. backing for feminism and the LBGT+ movement are seen as cultural imperialism.

The old Soviet Union’s influence in Africa, the Muslim world and India was limited by the fact that the Communists were atheists.  Putin’s Russia seeks to persuade the Global South that US Americans and their European allies are atheists and degenerates.

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As a US American citizen, I would like my country to be strong and peaceable, not weak and belligerent.

I mostly agree with Emmanuel Todd’s analysis.  I think right now Russia has the advantage, although I could be wrong, and things could change.

I don’t think the war is “existential” in the sense of threatening the existence of the United States as a nation.  It threatens U.S. domination, but we individual US American citizens don’t need world domination to be prosperous and free.

I think the best thing that US American leaders could do is to cut our losses right now, but I don’t think this is politically possible.  I don’t think a negotiated peace is possible any more.   I expect the fighting to go on until one side gives up.  

Even then, there may not be any peace agreement or even an armistice, just a cessation of fighting as in Afghanistan, Vietnam and Korea.  And even if actual fighting ceases, the economic war will continue until one side or the other is exhausted.

A day of reckoning is coming.  When it does, I hope I will have contributed to understanding of the reasons. 

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[Afterthought 01/17/2022].  I’ve already written about why I think Russia is likely to win and what the consequences would be .  I haven’t changed my mind.  But I could turn out to be wrong.  

The USA and the European Union may be better able to get through the current winter than I thought.  Russian resolve may be less than I thought.  There may be important things I’ve overlooked.

Suppose Volodymyr  Zelensky achieves his purpose of driving Russia from the borders of pre-2014 Ukraine.  Suppose Joe Biden achieves his purpose of  eliminating Russia as a possible military, diplomatic and economic rival.  The USA will have paid a huge price, and already is paying a price.

U.S. Army and Navy arsenals have been drawn down to dangerous levels in order to supply Ukraine.  The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been depleted, which means a U.S. energy crisis is a real possibility.  

Supply chain crises and the sanctions war are spurring inflation.   I see empty supermarket shelves, which I’ve never seen before except during the first weeks of the Covid lockdown .

Saudi Arabia is gravitating toward Russia and China.  The Saudi alliance is a keystone of U.S. power.  U.S. and E.U. seizures of Russian assets have inspired neutral countries to seek alternatives to the dollar, the euro and the Western banking system.  Dollar supremacy is a keystone of U.S. financial power.  

The NATO alliance will crack as frontline NATO allies realize the United States, rather than providing a shield, intends to use them as a spearhead.

Then there is the opportunity cost.  Resources poured into fighting Russia are resources not available for dealing with weather catastrophes, contagious disease, climate change, rebuilding U.S. infrastructure and other national needs.  

The longer the war goes on, the worse it will be for US Americans.

LINKS

I’m providing multiple links in case the full translation becomes unavailable.

Google translation of Emmanuel Todd’s full interview with Le Figaro.

Arnaud Bertrand on Twitter: Emmanuel Todd, one of the greatest French intellectuals, claims the “Third World War” has started.

Emmanuel Todd on the Third World War by Bernhard for Moon of Alabama

French expert says U.S. monetary control of the world will collapse due to Ukraine war by Iran’s PressTV.  Source of photo.

French expert says U.S. may have lost control of world finance due to conflict in Ukraine by Tass.

German General tells US Generals to lose the Ukraine War as soon as possible to prevent losing the Empire in Europe by John Helmer for Dances With Bears [Added 01/17/2022]

Tags: Economic War Against Russia, Emmanuel Todd, USA vs. Russia, War in Ukraine