Is there any possibility that Ukraine could win?

I’m not an expert on military matters. I don’t speak Russian or Ukrainian. I’m not in touch with anybody in Russia or Ukraine or the higher circles in Washington, D.C.

I’m a retiree with time on his hands, an Internet connection and a willingness to go outside official sources and consensus opinion in order to figure out what’s going on.

I’ve explained why I think Russia is winning its proxy war against the U.S.-led Western alliance.  I haven’t changed my mind, but that’s not to deny that Russia has weaknesses.

A Russian dissident pointed out that Vladimir Putin’s announced objectives in launching the war are not being achieved.

Putin wanted to push back NATO from its borders, but Sweden and Finland are de facto members of NATO.  He wanted to demilitarize Ukraine, but Ukraine is a heavily-armed military dictatorship.  He wanted to denazify Ukraine, but the neo-Nazi Banderite nationalists, previously a fringe group, are more powerful and popular than they have ever been.

Public opinion polls say Putin is more popular in Russia than Joe Biden is in the USA. But a strong minority opposes the war despite the risk of 15-year prison sentences.

The actual fighting in Ukraine is being done disproportionately by Russian-speaking militias raised in Ukraine itself, the Wagner Group private mercenary company and Chechens recruited by Putin’s warlord friend Ramzan Kadyrov.  The Russian government has tried to keep Russian draftees out of the fighting.

Russians as a group don’t seem to have anything against Ukrainians or any desire to go fight in Ukraine.  Large number of what you could call the professional-managerial class have left Russia to avoid the draft.

Also, while the cutoff of Russian oil and gas supplies has hurt the Western alliance, Europeans and we Americans have got through the winter better than I thought they would.

But taking all these things into account, I don’t think any of these things change the big picture.  Ukrainians, according to the military analysts I trust, are suffering much greater casualty rates than the Russian forces, and they are a smaller country to begin with.  Germans, French, Britons and Americans have even less desire to join. the fighting themselves than Russians do.

Although there doesn’t seem to be any great anti-war sentiment in the USA or Europe, there do seem to be rising protests against the economic hardships that are a byproduct of the sanctions war.  Cutting ourselves off from cheap Russian oil, gas and other raw materials has hurt us much more than it has hurt them.

Victory in a war of attrition is a product of two things – the degree of hardship suffered and the degree of will to endure the hardship.  If it is to be a war of attrition, Russia is in a better position to endure than the Western allies.  The Russians have more at stake, more of the resources needed to survive and the backing of China, the world’s leading industrial power.

One reason I think the Russians are winning is the increasingly reckless and desperate actions of Ukraine and the Western alliance.  These include the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the destruction of Nordstream pipelines.  

The most recent is the United Kingdom sending depleted uranium munitions to Ukraine.  The advantage of uranium is that it is heavier, and therefore more destructive, than lead.  But its toxicity and lingering radioactivity will leave a legacy of cancer and birth defects where it is used.  Ukrainians themselves will be the main victims.

Then there is the charge brought by the UK to the International Criminal Court accusing Vladimir Putin of a war crime for authorizing the evacuation of Russian orphans from the Donbas war zone.  

In theory, any nation that signed the ICC treaty is legally obligated to arrest Putin if he sets foot on their soil.  This makes peace negotiations unnecessarily difficult.  However, neither the USA nor Russia accept the jurisdiction of the ICC.

Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, a spokesman for the Ukrainian armed forces, gave an interview to the Euromaiden Press saying that, although Ukraine is holding its own against Russia, it does not have the equipment needed for a counteroffensive.  The article said:

Neither the US nor NATO would ever consider starting an offensive against dug-in and prepared ground forces, supported by long-range fire, combat aircraft, and attack helicopters without being able to project overwhelming force in all three dimensions.

Most of the prerequisites for Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive will, however, not be in place before summer.  Some – including long-range fire, combat aircraft, and sheer numbers – might not be in place this year.

Some of the requirements are still being denied. If – or rather when – they agree to deliver long-range fire and aircraft – Ukraine will need months to qualify the operators and integrate the system into its joint forces. The inflow of weapons remains incremental and slow and continues to limit Ukraine’s ability to engage Russian forces. Some, like air defense, are awaiting production and will not arrive for years.

Again, I don’t claim to know what will happen next.  I thought the Russians might launch some kind of winter offensive, once the ground was hard enough to support their tanks, but evidently their leaders decided it was more advantageous to just continue to grind down the Ukrainian army while slowly destroying the electrical grid and other utilities.

How could Ukraine win?  One strategy would be to try to hang on until the Russians grow weary of the war, or until something turns up to change the situation.  

This was the strategy of the Japanese after 1942 and the Confederacy after 1862.  It didn’t work for them.  Despite the facts I noted in the early part of this post, I don’t think it would work for the Ukrainians.

Another strategy would be to ramp up the war so that the USA and Russia are waging all-out war without restrictions.  USA and Russia might destroy each other, but Ukraine would survive.

I wouldn’t blame Zelensky for being willing to sacrifice the USA to ensure the survival of his own country.  After all, U.S. leaders are willing to sacrifice Ukraine in order to weaken Russia.  But that’s no reason for us Americans to go along.

I don’t see any alternative but to sue for peace in Ukraine.  Better to do it sooner rather than later.

LINKS

The Gathering Storm by Douglas MacGregor for The American Conservative.

What Ukraine needs to defeat Russia in 2023 by Hans Peter Midttun for Euromaiden Press.

The Cover-Up by Seymour Hersh.

Tags: Russia and Ukraine, War in Ukraine