We are told that the Russian invasion is a failure, that Putin completely miscalculated, that Russian forces are crumbling and Ukraine’s victory is just around the corner.
We also are being told the USA needs to send another $40 billion in aid to Ukraine pronto and to completely disrupt world trade in grain, oil and gas. Otherwise Russia may win. Even so, some of our military leaders are saying the war will go on for years.
The independent military analyst Scott Ritter says the last is a real possibility. Although he had been predicting a Russian victory, he now says that if the Ukrainian army can train in Poland and Germany, and receive potentially unlimited numbers of U.S. and other NATO arms, there is no telling how long they can hold out.
I consider Ritter an authority on the Russian military and on military science in general. What his reassessments tell me is that war is, by its nature, unpredictable. If the outcomes of wars could be foreseen with certainty, no nation would go to war in the first place.
Leaders of the USA and Russia should be concerned should be thinking about what they hope to achieve in war, and whether it will be worth the cost and the risks.
Biden’s stated war aim is not just to save Ukraine. It is to weaken Russia to the point where it is no longer capable of waging war. Also, to pressure Russians into replacing Putin with a leader wiling to beg for mercy.
Putin’s stated war aim is not just to save the Russians in the Donbas. It is to roll back NATO so that it is no longer capable of threatening Russia.
If neither of them gives in, it is very possible the result will be the bankruptcy or near-bankruptcy of the USA, Russia and many other countries, including some neutral countries, with Ukraine, including its Donbas region, left as a blood-soaked wasteland. That is not the worst-case scenario. The worst case would be a nuclear holocaust of most of Russia, Europe and the USA..
The best possible outcome would be a truce and a ratification of the previous status quo—neutrality for Ukraine, autonomy for Donbas, continuing Russian control of strategically vital Crimea.
Since only some of Russia’s perceived threats involve Ukraine, there would have to be a restoration of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces treaty and a ban on missile forces from countries bordering Russia.
Commentary by the Saker and Moon of Alabama’s Bernhard , and also the commentary by Scott Ritter and Ray McGovern on the video above, make me aware of why Vladimir Putin thinks Russia has been backed into a corner by the USA and NATO.
My readings of the Russian Dissent substack, Mezuda news service and Alexey Navalny videos also make me aware of the authoritarianism, corruption and cronyism of the Putin administration, and of misgivings about the war by ordinary Russians.
Russia and Ukraine may be separate countries, but many Russians and Ukrainians are related by friendship, lineage and marriage. They don’t want war with each other.
Both Russia and Ukraine are cracking down on dissent, so it is impossible for outsiders to know how much potential opposition there is to the war on either side.
Here in the USA, the widening war in Ukraine provides an excuse to step up official and unofficial censorship, and to put off dealing with the pandemic, climate-related catastrophes, inflation, rising debt, business monopoly, labor abuses, and financial crime.
All the Democrats I would have hoped might stand up for peace—Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ihan Omar, etc.—supported the $40 billion appropriation for the war.