
The establishment Democrats won the 2018 primaries and general election. They could win the 2020 presidential election if the presidential vote mirrors this year’s congressional vote.
By establishment Democrats, I mean the Democrats who, like Nancy Pelosi, seek to strike a balance between the desires of the donor class, who finance campaigns, and working people and racial minorities, who are their core voters.
The establishment Democrats focus on President Trump’s obnoxious personal behavior, the Russiagate investigations and racial and gender issues that don’t affect the power elite.
By progressive Democrats, I mean the Democrats who, like Bernie Sanders, raise money from small donors and regard the Wall Street banks and the billionaire class as enemies.
The progressive Democrats advocate policies such as Medicare for all, a $15 an hour minimum wage and the breakup of the “too big to fail” banks.
The establishment Democrats’ strategy is to win over independents and moderate Republicans who are disgusted with Donald Trump. They see their mandate as putting things back the way they were before President Trump was elected.
The progressive Democrats’ strategy is to rally labor union members, people of color and other historic Democratic constituencies who’ve grown apathetic because of failure of the Democratic leaders to represent their interests.
Nancy Pelosi, who is almost certain to become Speaker of the House of Representatives in 2019, said she will pursue a policy of fiscal responsibility, which rules out much of the progressive agenda.
She will insist all new spending be on a pay-as-you-go basis—that is, every new appropriation be accompanied by a tax increase or a spending cut elsewhere. She also will insist on supermajorities for tax increases on the bottom 80 percent of taxpayers.
This would rule out an ambitious infrastructure program, a Green New Deal jobs program, Medicare for all and most of the other programs of the progressive Democrats. What she will offer instead is strong support for reproductive rights and investigations into Trump administration scandals—although she has ruled out impeachment of the President.
Democrats got 8.9 million more total votes than Republicans in elections for the House of Representatives. Their margin of victory in the popular vote was 8 percent, versus 2.3 percent for Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump.
Democrats raised much more money than Republicans, according to OpenSecrets. The average Democratic Senatorial candidate raised $3.5 million; the average Republican, $1.5 million. The average Democratic House candidate raised $612,203; the average Republican, $502,805.
Catalyst reported that 56 percent of voters lived in suburban census tracts, versus 26 percent in rural tracts and 18 percent in urban tracts. The voters were 76 percent white and 63 percent age 50 or older.
The influence of big donations and the nature of the electorate explains why establishment Democrats did so well. But progressives made gains. Democrats gained compared to 2014 among their historic core supporters as well as independents and moderate Republicans.
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Democrats have good reason to be hopeful for 2020. Right now President Trump has a 40 percent approval rating, compared to 46 percent for Barack Obama and 45 percent for Bill Clinton at this point in their presidencies.
The Republican loss of 39 or more Congressional seats is above average for an incumbent party in a mid-term election, but it is less than the 63 lost by Democrats two years into the Obama presidency and 54 lost two years into the Clinton presidency.
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