Emmanuel Todd, a respected French historian and anthropologist, gave an interview to La Figero Friday that’s getting a lot of attention.
He said the U.S.-Russian conflict over Ukraine is a global struggle that is “existential” for the USA as well as for Russia. And, he said, U.S. power is more fragile than most Europeans and US Americans realize.
It is a test of the economic as well as military strengths of Russia on the one hand and the U.S.-led collective West on the other. If the U.S. loses, its financial power as well as its military prestige will crumble. It is not a conflict that the USA can simply walk away from as it did the wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.
After the 2014 coup in Ukraine and the failure of the Minsk accords to protect Ukraine’s Russian-speaking minority, both Russia and the NATO alliance prepared for a showdown. But Russia prepared by building up its economic strength as well as its military strength.
It is true, Todd wrote, that Russia expected Ukraine to crumble during the first few weeks of the invasion. Russians underestimated the determination of Ukraine and its NATO backers to resist.
But the USA and its allies underestimated Russian determination and US American weakness, he wrote. The Russian leaders regard this war as their last chance to resist American domination, and they will not willingly give in.
He said that if Russia, backed by China, can resist U.S. sanctions indefinitely and exhaust the European economy, American monetary and financial power would collapse and the U.S. government would no longer be able to finance its huge trade deficit and governmental budget deficit. This means the US government cannot afford to withdraw from the conflict.
For now, Russia has the advantage. Todd pointed out some indicators of relative strength.
Since sanctions began in 2014, Russia has doubled its production of wheat, while American wheat production has declined, Todd said. Russia is the world’s leading exporter of nuclear power plants.
In 2007, US American military experts said the USA would soon have the ability to launch a first strike against Russia to which Russia could not respond. Today, Todd said, Russia’s hypersonic missiles give it nuclear superiority.
He said the USA has more than double the college-age population of Russia, but Russia has 30 percent more students studying engineering. The USA fills the gap by enrolling foreign students, mostly Chinese and Indian, but this is unstable.
The USA has more advanced high-tech weapons than Russia does, and this has helped Ukraine win some victories. But Russians are beating the USA in mass production of low-tech weapons, he said, and this is providing decisive.
Ukrainians cannot match the number of Russian artillery barrages and drone attacks. Todd did admit it is not clear to him how long the Russians can keep this up. “The outcome and solution to the war will depend on the ability of both sides to produce armaments,” he said.
Phil Ebersole's Blog 