Posts Tagged ‘Gallup Poll’

What happened to American business start-ups?

January 28, 2015

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We Americans pride ourselves on our entrepreneurial spirit, but the number of new business start-ups is going steadily down.

The U.S. business death rate exceeds the business birth rate.  According to Gallup, the United States ranks 12th in the rate of new business start-ups, behind such nations as Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Israel, Italy, New Zealand and Sweden.

Why?  I can think of several possible reasons.

  • Businesses are often started by employees of large corporations who see a market niche that their employers are unwilling to try to fill.  The increase in non-compete agreements makes it increasingly harder for employees to do this.
  • The stagnation of the U.S. economy is self-perpetuating.  Nobody will start a business unless they think people will buy its products or services.  The lack of good jobs at good wages means there is less of a demand for new products.
  • Because of the uncertain economy, individuals are less willing to risk their savings by investing in startups.
  • The lack of a good social safety net makes entrepreneurialism more risky.  In Sweden, even if your business failed, you still would not have to worry about lack of medical care or your family going hungry.

This is important.  New and small businesses are local.  They employ Americans.  They don’t usually have the option to outsource to India or China.

Big businesses are not immortal.  In the ecology of business, the dying giants are replaced, if they are replaced, by growing small businesses.   Without a stream of new businesses, the economy becomes dependent on old and declining businesses, such as General Motors and Chrysler, while have to be bailed out and propped up.

I don’t think small-business subsidies and set-asides are the key to having start-ups.  The best things for business startups are a high-wage, full-employment economy, an end to abusive non-compete agreements and a breakup of big-business monopolies.

LINKS

How Wall Street Killed Entrepreneurs by Yves Smith for naked capitalism.

American Entrepreneurship: Dead or Alive? by Jim Clifton, chairman and CEO of the Gallup.

Has American Business Lost Its Mojo? by Thomas B. Edsall for the New York Times.  [Added 4/7/20154]

Slow Business Start-ups and the Job Recovery by Liz Laderman and Sylvain Leduc for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Added 4/7/2015]

How Special Interests Undermine Innovation by James Bessen for Foreign Affairs.  [Added 4/7/2015]

Overworked and underworked in the USA

September 3, 2014

A Gallup poll shows that half of all American full-time workers put in more than 40 hours a week, which once was considered the standard work week.

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The average work week for full-time workers is 47 hours, according to Gallup.

The average work week is much longer for salaried workers than for workers whose pay is based on hours worked.

According to Gallup, one out of every two salaried workers puts in more than 50 hours a week and one in four more than 60 hours.

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So much for the superior middle class status of working on a salary!

On the other hand, roughly four out of 10 American workers are employed only part-time, and their average work week is declining.

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Gallup reported that 12 percent of Americans hold two jobs, and 1 percent hold three or more, but they don’t change the overall poll results.

Working overtime is not necessarily bad, if you love your work or if overtime pay is more important to you than leisure.  Similarly, many people—full-time students, or parents of small children—have a need for part-time work.

But my guess is that the vast majority of people who are working 47 or more hours a week, and those who are working 25 hours or less, would prefer the standard 40-hour week.

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It’s the Democrats who back NSA spying

June 18, 2013
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Back during the Bush administration, many Democrats, including Senators Barack Obama and Joe Biden, opposed warrant-less wiretapping.   But now that the Democrats are in power, there has been a change of mind.

It is a great example of how much politics is a matter of group loyalty rather than loyalty to principle.  Obamaphiles are in favor of whatever President Obama favors, and Obamaphobes are opposed, no matter what.

Presidents Ronald Reagan was noted for “dog whistles”—phraseology that the general public didn’t notice, but that reassured conservative Christians that he really was on their side.  President Obama has a genius for liberal dog whistles.  Liberals believe he is on our side at heart in spite of all the things he actually does.

Click on Majority Views NSA Phone Tracking as Acceptable Anti-Terror Tactic for the complete results of the Pew Research poll.

Click on Americans Disapprove of Government Surveillance Programs for the complete result of the Gallup poll.

Both Pew and Gallup found that the NSA surveillance program gets more support from Democrats than Republicans.

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The geography of American conservatism

February 23, 2012

Self-described conservatives outnumber liberals in 49 states, according to Gallup.  That’s true even in the state colored light green on the map—all except Massachusetts, and the District of Columbia.  Strangely, the poorest states are the most conservative.  Liberals are strongest in states whose residents contribute the most in federal taxes in comparison to the benefits they receive; conservatives are strongest in states who benefit the most from federal programs in comparison to the taxes they pay.

There are 26 states in which more than 40 percent of those polled by Gallup call themselves conservatives, including three (Mississippi, Utah and Wyoming) in which conservatives are more than 50 percent).  In no state do self-described liberals get above 40 percent, and only in Massachusetts and the District of Columbia do they get above 30 percent.

New York state, where I live, is one of the more liberal states.  It is five to three Democratic in registration and gives President Obama a net favorable approval rating.  Yet in a Gallup poll, self-described conservative New Yorkers outnumber self-described liberals, 32 percent to 26 percent.  (An additional 37 percent of New Yorkers polled told Gallup they are moderates.)

Gallup’s data indicate that:

• Conservative states are considerably more religious than liberal-leaning states, and the correlation between conservatism and religion is increasing.

• Conservative states have a smaller proportion of college graduates, a larger concentration of blue-collar workers and a smaller concentration of “creative” and “knowledge” workers.

• States with more conservatives are less diverse.  They have a smaller percentage of immigrants or of gays and lesbians.  However, it doesn’t seem to matter one way or the other what percentage of the population is black, white or Hispanic.

• States with more conservatives are considerably less affluent than those with more liberals.  Conservatism is correlated with lower state income levels and even more so with lower average hourly earnings.

Within states, the higher-income people tend to be economic conservatives and social liberals and the lower-income people tend to be economic liberals and social conservatives.

My guess is that the Gallup respondents defined themselves in terms of social issues rather than economic issues.  That is because they are offered a meaningful choice on issues such as gay marriage, abortion rights, prayer in the public schools and the like.  On economic issues, not so much.  Liberal Democrats are as much in thrall to Wall Street as conservative Republicans.  Neither faction offers any hope of doing anything about outsourcing, downsizing, foreclosures, declining wages or other material concerns of average Americans.  Only in the so-called moral and cultural issues is there a dime’s worth of difference between the two parties.

We don’t know that average-income voters necessarily consider social issues more important than economic issues.  They might or might not, if given a choice, but they are not given that choice.

The next charts show how ideological differences among the states and among voters within states.

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The enduring power of conservatism

February 23, 2012

Self-described conservatives outnumber self-described liberals nearly two to one nationwide.  If you look at this graph, it is easy to understand why the Republican candidates emphasize their conservatism, while Obama and the Democratic leaders emphasize their moderation.    Republicans can win nationally if they get all the conservative voters and a third of moderate voters.  But Democrats can’t win unless they get a large majority of moderates.

In the long run, the perceived lack of appeal of liberalism becomes self-reinforcing.  If liberals insist that they’re really moderates, and not all that liberal, how can anyone take liberalism seriously?  The “movement conservatives” don’t do that.  Even in 1964, when American conservatism seemed washed up, they stuck to their principles and eventually came back.

Click on Conservatives Remain the Largest Ideological Group in U.S. for more from Gallup and the source of the top chart.

Click on State of the States for more from Gallup and the source of the bottom chart.

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