Viktor Orban’s message to Europe

Viktor Orban

Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary, refuses to join in the proxy war and economic war against Russia.  He gave his reasons why in a speech last summer, which I’ve excerpted, because it sums up the situation so well.  

He is a contentious character, for reasons explained in the linked articles.  But I don’t see anything in this speech excerpt that isn’t true.

Western strategy in this war is based on four pillars.  It is a sensible strategy on paper, and perhaps even has numbers to back it up.  

The first was that Ukraine cannot win a war against Russia on its own, but it can do so with training from the Anglo-Saxons and with NATO weapons.  That was the first claim.

The second strategic claim was that sanctions would weaken Russia and destabilise the leadership in Moscow.

The third strategic element was that – although they would also affect us – we would be able to deal with the economic consequences of the sanctions, so that they would be hurt more and we would be hurt less.

And the fourth strategic consideration was that the world would line up behind us, because we were in the right.

As a result of this excellent strategy, however, today the situation is that we are sitting in a car with four flat tires.  

It is absolutely clear that the war cannot be won like this.  The Ukrainians will never win a war against Russia with American training and weapons.  This is simply because the Russian army has asymmetric superiority.

The second fact that we must face up to is that the sanctions are not destabilising Moscow.

The third is that Europe is in trouble: economic trouble, but also political trouble, with governments falling like dominoes.  Just since the outbreak of the war, the British, the Italian, the Bulgarian and the Estonian governments have fallen.  And autumn is still ahead of us.  The big price rise came in June, when energy prices doubled.  The effects of this on people’s lives, which are creating discontent, are only just beginning to arrive, and we have already lost four governments.

And finally, the world is not only not with us, it is demonstrably not with us.  Historically the Americans have had the ability to pick out what they identify as an evil empire and to call on the world to stand on the right side of history – a phrase which bothers us a little, as this is what the Communists always said.  This ability that the Americans used to have of getting everyone on the right side of the world and of history, and then the world obeying them, is something which has now disappeared.

Hungary 1956 and Ukraine 2015

I was at the end of basic training in the U.S. Army in 1956 when the Hungarian people rose up against the Soviet occupiers.

It would have been right and just for President Eisenhower to send me and other young Americans to stand with the Hungarian freedom fighters, especially since their uprising had been encouraged by the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe.

It also would have been reckless and foolish, because it could have provoked a nuclear war that would have destroyed the USA, the USSR, Hungary and much of the rest of the world.

The USA and USSR still have sufficient nuclear weapons to destroy each other and much else.  A military confrontation with Russia over Ukraine would be as reckless and foolish as defending the Hungarian rebels would have been then.

A truce, or a freezing of the Ukraine conflict, would not be to the benefit of the Ukrainian people, any more than the Cold War division of Europe was to the benefit of the Hungarian people.

Russia would be left in control of its vital naval base in Crimea and with a presence in the eastern Ukrainian industrial heartland.   Ukrainians ruled from Kiev would be forced to submit to the IMF’s harsh austerity requirements and to sell national assets at bargain prices.

The best that can be said is that it is better than nuclear war.

American world power: Links & comments 8/1/14

A chessboard drenched in blood by Pepe Escobar for the Asia Times.

Parsing the East Asia Powder Keg by Conn M. Hallinan on Dispatches from the Edge.  Hat tip to Bill Harvey.

Early in his administration, President Barack Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, in the hope and expectation that he would pursue a less belligerent foreign policy than President George W. Bush.  I wonder what the Nobel committee is thinking as the Obama administration drifts toward war not only with Russia, but with China.

One of President Obama’s saving graces is that he has been known to pull back from disastrous decisions before it is too late, as in intervention in Syria.  I hope he will pull back from his present course before it is too late.

Orban Says He Seeks to End Liberal Democracy in Hungary by Zoltan Simon for Bloomberg News.

Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary says he wants to Hungary to become an illiberal, nationalist state like Russia, Turkey or China.  I don’t know enough about Hungary to know how seriously to take this statement, but I think it is a straw in the wind.

The viability of democracy was severely tested during the Great Depression, and many people looked to Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy as viable alternatives.  If Russia and China weather the current economic crisis better than the USA does, much of the world will, unfortunately, find their form of authoritarianism appealing.

The Vulture: Chewing Argentina’s Living Corpse by Greg Palast.

Clintonians Join Vulture Fund Over Argentina by Conn M. Hallinan for TruthDig.  Hat tip to Bill Harvey.

A U.S. judge overruled a deal made by the government of Argentina with a majority of its creditors to make a partial payment on its debt and avoid national bankruptcy.  All debtors have to be paid in full, the judge ruled.

The reason a U.S. judge has jurisdiction is that the payments by Argentina to its bondholders go through U.S. banks.  I think a consequence of this decision will be that foreign governments avoid U.S. banks whenever possible.

American soft power rests on the fact that the USA is at the center of a lot of things, from the world financial system to the Internet.  But if our government and our corporations abuse this power, it is within the power of the rest of the world to create new systems that bypass the USA.