Posts Tagged ‘Job Growth’

High minimum wage and small-biz job growth

May 15, 2014

Growth in small-business jobs is greatest in Washington state, which has the highest state minimum wage, and in San Francisco, which has the highest urban minimum wage.

That conclusion is based on the Paychex | IHS Small Business Job Index, a survey of more than 350,000 small-business clients of Paychex, a payroll processing firm, in partnership with IHS, a consulting firm.


U.S. Small Business Jobs Index

The federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour.  Overall, the United States had a Small Business Job Index of 101.26, which meant that the number of small-business jobs was up 1.26 percent from 2004, when the survey began.

Washington state, with a minimum wage of $9.32 an hour, had a Job Index of 103.51 and San Francisco, with a minimum of $10.74 an hour, had a Job Index of 104.02.

During the past 12 months, small-business jobs increased by 2.2 percent in Washington state.  Seattle’s small-business jobs grew by 2.66 percent, the highest 12-month growth rate among large U.S. cities.  Small-business jobs in San Francisco’s increased 1.13 percent during the same period.

Maybe this job growth is due to a higher minimum wage giving workers more money to spend at local small businesses.  Maybe it is for reasons completely unrelated to minimum wage.

But it provides an answer to the argument of many economists and the Congressional Budget Office that any increase in the minimum wage automatically results in a loss of small-business jobs.


Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index.   Tables of data.

Paychex | IHS Small Business Jobs Index Increases to 101.26 in April.  A press release.

Washington state defies minimum wage logic by Katie Loboso for CNNMoney.  Hat tip to Barry Ritholtz.

The extremely slow U.S. economic recovery

May 6, 2013

The Dow Jones average is back to where it was before.   The American job market still has a long way to go.

Dow hits record high

There is less to these charts than meets the eye.  Stock prices and jobs are rebounding, but investors are not doing all that well, and job-seekers are doing worse.

The Dow Jones average for the past six years has not kept up with inflation, even though the rate of inflation is extremely low.   And the bottom chart shows just how slow the rebound in jobs has been compared to previous economic recoveries.  Just as the stock market ought to keep up with inflation, the job market ought to keep up with population growth.  In other words, even when the number of jobs gets back to what it was in 2007, we’ll still be behind.

The official unemployment rate for April was 7.5 percent.  Economist David F. Ruccio pointed out that this means there are 11.6 million Americans still looking for work, four years after the supposed beginning of the economic recovery.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports its U-6 rate of unemployment, which includes jobless people who’ve given up looking for work, and part-time workers who want to work full-time, is 13.9 percent.   This is 21.9 million Americans, roughly one in seven eligible workers.

Click on Why Good People Can’t Find Jobs — What You’re Up Against for a good report on why it’s tough to find a job.

Click on occasional links and commentary for David F. Ruccio’s web log, which is crammed with good information.

Barack Obama’s magic jobs number

March 9, 2012

Nate Silver’s statistical analysis indicates that incumbent Presidents since World War Two, and especially from 1980, have been likely to be re-elected if U.S. jobs are increasing at a rate of 150,000 a month in the election year.  The United States in fact added 227,000 jobs in February.

If Silver is correct, President Obama should be on track to win—barring the unforeseen—in spite of an unemployment rate still stubbornly high and long-term unemployment at record levels.  Of course he is helped by the lack of a sensible economic policy from any of his potential Republican opponents.

Click on Obama’s Magic Number? 150,000 Jobs Per Month for Nate Silver’s report in his FiveThirtyEight column for the New York Times column.

Click on Today’s Jobs Report in Pictures and The Legacy of the Great Recession for charts by the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities showing just how bad the job situation still is.

Click on Statement by chief CPBB Chad Stone on the February employment report for analysis of the February jobs figures.

Click on Full Employment: A Force Against Rising Inequality and Stagnant Incomes for a report by economist Jared Bernstein on why it is vital to get back to a full employment economy.

Hat tip to Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture for the chart.