Posts Tagged ‘Monty Hall Problem’

Did the world’s smartest woman make a mistake?

March 22, 2015

Marilyn vos Savant, who was briefly listed in the Guinness Book of World Records as having the highest I.Q. on record, has a column in Parade magazine in which she answers readers’ questions.

ask.marilyn_In September 1990, Marilyn vos Savant devoted one of her columns to a reader’s question, which presented a variation of the Monty Hall Problem:

“Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say #3, which has a goat. He says to you, “Do you want to pick door #2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?”

“Yes; you should switch,” she replied. “The first door has a 1/3 chance of winning, but the second door has a 2/3 chance.”

via pricenomics.

She received thousands of answers, almost all much like this one.